Toronto's First Line Thriving While Second Line Struggles
Through the early 2026-27 season, Toronto's top line of Kirill Marchenko, Auston Matthews, and Jack Roslovic has controlled play at five-on-five and ranks among the NHL's best in shot and expected-goal metrics. The second line with John Tavares, Gavin McKenna, and William Nylander has struggled to generate offense and hold the offensive zone. The contrast may lead to lineup or roster adjustments.
Through three early 2026-27 games, Toronto’s Marchenko-Matthews-Roslovic unit has posted a plus-10 five-on-five shot differential, fourth among 40 lines with at least 20 minutes together. Its plus-14 slot-shot differential ranks first, and its 84.3 expected-goals percentage also leads that group. Yet the line’s actual goal differential is even, placing 15th.
The Tavares-McKenna-Nylander trio sits at minus-10 in shots, 39th of those 40 lines, and last in slot-shot differential at minus-eight. Its 15.2 expected-goals percentage is also last. That gap has raised questions about lineup or roster changes.
If the second line’s struggles continue, coaches may face pressure to alter roles or combinations, affecting player confidence and fan discussion. Toronto’s large hockey market could amplify scrutiny, while improved top-line results may sustain interest and ticket demand. Roster adjustments could also shape younger players’ development and team chemistry, though outcomes remain uncertain.