How much do the first 10 games shape NHL playoff odds?
The article examines how much a team's first 10 games reveal about its playoff chances. It revisits the American Thanksgiving benchmark, noting that roughly 78% of clubs in playoff spots at that point have reached the postseason. It also considers how expansion, divisional alignment, and 3-on-3 overtime affect the comparison.
The article traces the Thanksgiving benchmark to Elliotte Friedman’s 2016 observation. His original sample covered 2000-01 through 2014-15, before Vegas and Seattle joined, before the 2013 divisional shift, and before 3-on-3 overtime arrived in 2015. Even so, the pattern persisted.
Across the past five seasons, 62 of 80 teams sitting in playoff spots on American Thanksgiving eventually qualified, again 78%. The piece notes late-November teams can differ by six games played, and Olympic-year scheduling can compress the calendar. It then tests 10- and 25-game cutoffs.
This analysis could influence how fans, media, and team decision-makers interpret early-season results. A stronger Thanksgiving benchmark may temper overreactions to October slumps or hot starts, while still leaving room for late surges. For supporters, it may shape hope or anxiety; for clubs, it could inform patience or urgency. Because the pattern is historical, not predictive, its social impact likely remains cultural and conversational rather than deterministic.